Arizona's political landscape is evolving, and the 2024 presidential election could mark a pivotal moment for the state. Lisa M. Sanchez, assistant professor in the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy, sees Arizona's growing population, diversity and shifting demographics as key factors in its transformation into a contentious political battleground.

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As Republicans and Democrats vie for control, the state's changing electorate is set to play a critical role in shaping the national outcome.

"Arizona is a shifting political landscape," Sanchez said. "Historically, the state was sort of an easy win for conservatives. Now that we've seen an influx in population – and especially in the Latino community – we are starting to see Arizona as a state that is not so assured. That's a good thing for Democrats because they know the electoral content will matter, but it's a bad thing for Republicans who had seen the state as 'in the bag.' It's not." 

Sanchez researches ethno-racial disparities in American politics and investigates key factors driving political participation across the country, with a focus on Latino voters and Congressional politics. Her recent work analyzes the adoption of immigration policies in American states, the prevalence of cross-racial ties among Americans of all racial and ethnic backgrounds, and the relationship between a growing Latino population and its electoral impact.

The United States Census Bureau recorded nearly 6.4 million Arizonans in 2010, and the Arizona Secretary of State lists 3.1 million registered voters that year. The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity estimates Arizona's 2024 population to be roughly 7.6 million, and more than 4.1 million Arizonans were registered to vote at the time of the 2024 primary election. Of those 4.1 million, just over 1.4 million were registered as Republicans, 1.1 million as Democrats, nearly 1.4 million as Independent and more than 30,000 as Libertarians. 

While Arizona's voter roll and influence on elections has grown over the years, Sanchez said the issues that send voters to the ballot box remain relatively unchanged. Chief among those concerns, she said, is the economy – especially considering Phoenix is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States.

People often move to Arizona to pursue economic opportunities in a burgeoning economy and will keep their budgets in mind when voting for the next president, Sanchez said.

"It is very interesting to see the Kamala Harris campaign's outreach on economic issues," Sanchez said. "She's been using the terminology of an 'Opportunity Economy.' I think that's a really wise decision on her part, especially when it comes to Latinos, many of whom have grown up with a high emphasis on the American Dream ethos and have some of the highest adherence to the idea that the American Dream is still alive. Her using that terminology – I don't think that's an accident."

Donald Trump, on the other hand, takes a different approach.

"Trump is really making the case that voters haven't done great under a Biden economy, and that he is a businessman," Sanchez said. "For many white voters, that plays really well; they are already thinking that business is where solutions are, and so they have high hopes. Trump makes that case very well, particularly in Arizona where small businesses are a really important part of the economy." 

Aside from the economy, Sanchez said that reproductive rights and abortion access; immigration and border security; and educational attainment remain important issues for Arizona voters, regardless of race, nationality, gender or party affiliation. 

Sanchez noted that increased political participation by Arizona's Latino population is driven, in part, by the fact that more women of Hispanic and Latino descent are heading to the polls, at a time when they are also taking on new roles at home.

"Latinas are increasingly heads of households," Sanchez said. "When we look at the economic data, there are higher levels of engagement in the labor market, and they are starting to run more and more households for the first time. Hispanic women are in the driver's seat."